J. Biosci. Agric. Res. | Volume 30, Issue 01, 2508-2512 | https://doi.org/10.18801/jbar.300123.302
Article type: Research article | Received: 28.09.2022; Revised: 05.01.2023; First published online: 22 February, 2023.
Article type: Research article | Received: 28.09.2022; Revised: 05.01.2023; First published online: 22 February, 2023.
Performance of trend models of ginger production
Keya Rani Das 1, Mashrat Jahan 2 and Mst. Noorunnahar 1
1 Department of Statistics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur 1706, Bangladesh.
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur 1706, Bangladesh.
✉ Corresponding author: [email protected] (Das, K. R.).
1 Department of Statistics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur 1706, Bangladesh.
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur 1706, Bangladesh.
✉ Corresponding author: [email protected] (Das, K. R.).
Abstract
Ginger (Zingiber officinale) is a cash crop for small farmers, and its health benefits make it an important spice. In this study, we want to look at various trend models for ginger production over time and see how they perform. Data for ginger production in Bangladesh are gathered from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) website from 1971 to 2020. We examine the performance of eight trend models using the coefficient of determination (R2) and adjusted R2. The maximum R2 and maximum adjusted R2 values have been found for both the compound and growth model. MAPE and MAD values are also used to assess the accuracy of fitted models. The value of MAPE and MAD for the estimated compound and growth model is same, which are 12.14% and 6057.54, respectively. Following statistical diagnostics, the compound and growth models were determined to be more appropriate for this dataset, with the compound growth rate of ginger production being 1.019 per year.
Key Words: Ginger production, Accuracy, Trend, MAPE and MAD.
Ginger (Zingiber officinale) is a cash crop for small farmers, and its health benefits make it an important spice. In this study, we want to look at various trend models for ginger production over time and see how they perform. Data for ginger production in Bangladesh are gathered from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) website from 1971 to 2020. We examine the performance of eight trend models using the coefficient of determination (R2) and adjusted R2. The maximum R2 and maximum adjusted R2 values have been found for both the compound and growth model. MAPE and MAD values are also used to assess the accuracy of fitted models. The value of MAPE and MAD for the estimated compound and growth model is same, which are 12.14% and 6057.54, respectively. Following statistical diagnostics, the compound and growth models were determined to be more appropriate for this dataset, with the compound growth rate of ginger production being 1.019 per year.
Key Words: Ginger production, Accuracy, Trend, MAPE and MAD.
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MLA
Das, K. R. et al. “Performance of trend models of ginger production”. Journal of Bioscience and Agriculture Research, 30(01), (2023): 2508-2512.
APA
Das, K. R., Jahan, M. and Noorunnahar, M. (2023). Performance of trend models of ginger production. Journal of Bioscience and Agriculture Research, 30(01), 2508-2512.
Chicago
Das, K. R., Jahan, M. and Noorunnahar, M. “Performance of trend models of ginger production”. Journal of Bioscience and Agriculture Research, 30(01), (2023): 2508-2512.
Harvard
Das, K. R., Jahan, M. and Noorunnahar, M. 2023. Performance of trend models of ginger production. Journal of Bioscience and Agriculture Research, 30(01), pp. 2508-2512.
Vancouver
Das, KR, Jahan, M and Noorunnahar, M. Performance of trend models of ginger production. Journal of Bioscience and Agriculture Research, 2023 February, 30(01): 2508-2512.
Das, K. R. et al. “Performance of trend models of ginger production”. Journal of Bioscience and Agriculture Research, 30(01), (2023): 2508-2512.
APA
Das, K. R., Jahan, M. and Noorunnahar, M. (2023). Performance of trend models of ginger production. Journal of Bioscience and Agriculture Research, 30(01), 2508-2512.
Chicago
Das, K. R., Jahan, M. and Noorunnahar, M. “Performance of trend models of ginger production”. Journal of Bioscience and Agriculture Research, 30(01), (2023): 2508-2512.
Harvard
Das, K. R., Jahan, M. and Noorunnahar, M. 2023. Performance of trend models of ginger production. Journal of Bioscience and Agriculture Research, 30(01), pp. 2508-2512.
Vancouver
Das, KR, Jahan, M and Noorunnahar, M. Performance of trend models of ginger production. Journal of Bioscience and Agriculture Research, 2023 February, 30(01): 2508-2512.
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