Journal of Science, Technology and Environment Informatics |
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Research Article:
Temperature, precipitation and net irrigation requirement scenario for major winter crops in the south-eastern Bangladesh
Molla Karimul Islam (1), Shaibur Rahman Molla (2), Mohammad Mahfuzur Rahman (2) and Kushal Roy (3)
1Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, Germany
2Dept. of Environmental Science and Technology, Jessore University of Science and Technology (JUST), Jessore-7408, Bangladesh
3Environmental Science Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna-9208, Bangladesh
J. Sci. Technol. Environ. Inform. | Volume 03, Issue 02, pp. 220-230 | Date of Publication: 14 August 2016.
DOI: 10.18801/jstei.030216.25.
Temperature, precipitation and net irrigation requirement scenario for major winter crops in the south-eastern Bangladesh
Molla Karimul Islam (1), Shaibur Rahman Molla (2), Mohammad Mahfuzur Rahman (2) and Kushal Roy (3)
1Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, Germany
2Dept. of Environmental Science and Technology, Jessore University of Science and Technology (JUST), Jessore-7408, Bangladesh
3Environmental Science Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna-9208, Bangladesh
J. Sci. Technol. Environ. Inform. | Volume 03, Issue 02, pp. 220-230 | Date of Publication: 14 August 2016.
DOI: 10.18801/jstei.030216.25.
| 25.03.02.16_temperature_precipitation_and_net_irrigation_requirement_scenario_for_major_winter_crops_in_the_south-eastern_bangladesh.pdf |
Title: Temperature, precipitation and net irrigation requirement scenario for major winter crops in the south-eastern Bangladesh
Abstract: Bangladesh ranked top among the climate vulnerable countries in the world. Climate change is evident since few decades. Changing climate affects the life, property and economy of the country. Among them, agricultural is the most affected sector. Literature suggests that the future climatic condition might affect the agriculture even more adversely. Therefore, considering the economic strength, agriculture based economy and population density, the country needs much effort to adjust with the changing circumstances. A clear and specific understanding of the apprehending changes would certainly assist in preparation to fight against the adverse impact. Aiming to provide updated knowledge about the climate change scenario and future irrigation water demand, this study simulated the temperature, precipitation and net irrigation requirement (NIR) scenario for Boro, Potato and Wheat crop for the south-eastern part of Bangladesh.
MAGICC/SCENGENE model was used to simulate local scale temperature and precipitation scenario considering Special Report on Emission and Radiation (SRES) A1B-AIM emission scenario and thereafter simulated NIR based on the temperature and precipitation scenario using the AquqCrop model. The MAGICC/SCENGEN model was calibrated and validated using the observed datasets collected from 12 weather stations of Bangladesh Meteorological Station (BMD). The changes in temperature, precipitation and NIR are estimated based on the 11 year mean values extending from the year 2000 to 2010 (as the base data).
The analysis reveals that the south-eastern part of Bangladesh is likely to experience diverse trends of climatic change. The temperature showed a linear trend of increment ranging from 1.4°C to 2.4°C by the year 2100. The changes would not be the same for all season. Winter temperature showed maximum changes as compared to that of base period. On the other hand, the changes in precipitation showed two trends. Precipitation scenarios showed initial increase until 2040 and thereafter decline in 2050. After 2050 the total precipitation is likely continue to increase. However, it showed substantial variability throughout the seasons. The area would receive less rainfall during pre-monsoon, while the precipitation is likely to increase in the post-monsoon. NIR scenario suggests a steady increase for all three winter crops. The NIR might be increased by 10 to 25% depending on the crop types.
AquaCrop model estimates the irrigation water requirement based only on soil moisture stress level and carbon-di-oxide (CO2) fertilization. It does not include organic matter depletion, initial moisture stress, impact of salinity etc. Despite this simplicity, the study outcome provides important implications for the policy practitioners to ensure future food security and water management challenges.
Key Words: Climate change, Net irrigation requirement, MAGICC-SCENGEN, AquaCrop Model and South-East Bangladesh
Abstract: Bangladesh ranked top among the climate vulnerable countries in the world. Climate change is evident since few decades. Changing climate affects the life, property and economy of the country. Among them, agricultural is the most affected sector. Literature suggests that the future climatic condition might affect the agriculture even more adversely. Therefore, considering the economic strength, agriculture based economy and population density, the country needs much effort to adjust with the changing circumstances. A clear and specific understanding of the apprehending changes would certainly assist in preparation to fight against the adverse impact. Aiming to provide updated knowledge about the climate change scenario and future irrigation water demand, this study simulated the temperature, precipitation and net irrigation requirement (NIR) scenario for Boro, Potato and Wheat crop for the south-eastern part of Bangladesh.
MAGICC/SCENGENE model was used to simulate local scale temperature and precipitation scenario considering Special Report on Emission and Radiation (SRES) A1B-AIM emission scenario and thereafter simulated NIR based on the temperature and precipitation scenario using the AquqCrop model. The MAGICC/SCENGEN model was calibrated and validated using the observed datasets collected from 12 weather stations of Bangladesh Meteorological Station (BMD). The changes in temperature, precipitation and NIR are estimated based on the 11 year mean values extending from the year 2000 to 2010 (as the base data).
The analysis reveals that the south-eastern part of Bangladesh is likely to experience diverse trends of climatic change. The temperature showed a linear trend of increment ranging from 1.4°C to 2.4°C by the year 2100. The changes would not be the same for all season. Winter temperature showed maximum changes as compared to that of base period. On the other hand, the changes in precipitation showed two trends. Precipitation scenarios showed initial increase until 2040 and thereafter decline in 2050. After 2050 the total precipitation is likely continue to increase. However, it showed substantial variability throughout the seasons. The area would receive less rainfall during pre-monsoon, while the precipitation is likely to increase in the post-monsoon. NIR scenario suggests a steady increase for all three winter crops. The NIR might be increased by 10 to 25% depending on the crop types.
AquaCrop model estimates the irrigation water requirement based only on soil moisture stress level and carbon-di-oxide (CO2) fertilization. It does not include organic matter depletion, initial moisture stress, impact of salinity etc. Despite this simplicity, the study outcome provides important implications for the policy practitioners to ensure future food security and water management challenges.
Key Words: Climate change, Net irrigation requirement, MAGICC-SCENGEN, AquaCrop Model and South-East Bangladesh
APA (American Psychological Association)
Islam, M. K., Molla, S. R., Rahman, M. M. & Roy, K. (2016). Temperature, precipitation and net irrigation requirement scenario for major winter crops in the south-eastern Bangladesh. Journal of Science, Technology and Environment Informatics, 03(02), 220-230.
MLA (Modern Language Association)
Islam, M. K., Molla, S. R., Rahman, M. M. & Roy, K. “Temperature, precipitation and net irrigation requirement scenario for major winter crops in the south-eastern Bangladesh.” Journal of Science, Technology and Environment Informatics, 03.02 (2016): 220-230.
Chicago/Turabian
Islam, M. K., Molla, S. R., Rahman, M. M. & Roy, K. Temperature, precipitation and net irrigation requirement scenario for major winter crops in the south-eastern Bangladesh. Journal of Science, Technology and Environment Informatics, 03, no. 02 (2016): 220-230.
Islam, M. K., Molla, S. R., Rahman, M. M. & Roy, K. (2016). Temperature, precipitation and net irrigation requirement scenario for major winter crops in the south-eastern Bangladesh. Journal of Science, Technology and Environment Informatics, 03(02), 220-230.
MLA (Modern Language Association)
Islam, M. K., Molla, S. R., Rahman, M. M. & Roy, K. “Temperature, precipitation and net irrigation requirement scenario for major winter crops in the south-eastern Bangladesh.” Journal of Science, Technology and Environment Informatics, 03.02 (2016): 220-230.
Chicago/Turabian
Islam, M. K., Molla, S. R., Rahman, M. M. & Roy, K. Temperature, precipitation and net irrigation requirement scenario for major winter crops in the south-eastern Bangladesh. Journal of Science, Technology and Environment Informatics, 03, no. 02 (2016): 220-230.
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